Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger: prediction and stats
CAF Super CupFinalKick-off on November 8, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Loftus Versfeld Stadium, Tshwane
The Footlab AI model makes Mamelodi Sundowns the favourite at 74%, against 17% for a draw and 9% for USM Alger. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,523 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger?
Mamelodi Sundowns starts as the favourite with a 190-point Elo edge (2,091 vs 1,901).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mamelodi Sundowns
4-2-3-1- 12B. León
- 4T. Mokoena
- 17T. Matthews
- 11M. Allende
- 33C. Mailula
- 38S. Mthanti
- 3K. Ndamane
- 22T. Matuludi
- 42Malibongwe Khoza
- 27T. Morena
- 30R. Williams
Known absences
T. ZwaneOut · Suspended (red card)
USM Alger
4-3-3- 24M. Bouderbala
- 29D. Kamagate
- 15M. Ramdaoui
- 11G. Likonza
- 6Z. Draoui
- 10D. Bensaadallah
- 12H. Loucif
- 28A. Abada
- 5I. Azzi
- 20R. Mahrouz
- 1O. Benbot
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:22 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mamelodi Sundowns have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat; USM Alger have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Richards Bay(away) | 4-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Orlando Pirates(away) | 2-0 | 8 Cup |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Al-Ahli Jeddah(home) | 2-1 | FIFA Intercontinental Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Chippa United(away) | 1-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Siwelele(home) | 3-0 | Premier Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | JS Saoura(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | MB Rouisset(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Olympique Akbou(away) | 3-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | JS El Biar(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Khenchela(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Mamelodi Sundowns wins, 0 draws, 0 USM Alger wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2020 | Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 USM Alger | CAF Champions League |
| Dec 28, 2019 | USM Alger 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns | CAF Champions League |
Last archived meeting: Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger on Jan 11, 2020
How many goals should we expect?
Mamelodi Sundowns score 2.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; USM Alger score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mamelodi Sundowns | 2.3 | 1.0 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| USM Alger | 1.3 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mamelodi Sundowns the favourite at 74%, against 17% for a draw and 9% for USM Alger.
- Where and when is Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger played?
- Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger is played on November 8, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Loftus Versfeld Stadium, in the CAF Super Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.