Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger: prediction and stats
CAF Super CupFinalKick-off on November 8, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Loftus Versfeld Stadium, Tshwane
The Footlab model makes Mamelodi Sundowns the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for USM Alger. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger?
Mamelodi Sundowns starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (2,029 vs 1,914).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mamelodi Sundowns have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; USM Alger have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Golden Arrows(home) | 0-1 | 8 Cup |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Marumo Gallants(home) | 2-0 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kaizer Chiefs(away) | 1-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | TS Galaxy(away) | 3-2 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Polokwane City(home) | 3-2 | 8 Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | MC Oran(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Ben Aknoun(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Jun 2, 2026 | CR Belouizdad(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 30, 2026 | MB Rouisset(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 25, 2026 | Khenchela(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Mamelodi Sundowns win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 USM Alger win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2020 | Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 USM Alger | CAF Champions League |
| Dec 28, 2019 | USM Alger 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns | CAF Champions League |
Last archived meeting: Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger on Jan 11, 2020
How many goals should we expect?
Mamelodi Sundowns score 2.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; USM Alger score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mamelodi Sundowns | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| USM Alger | 1.3 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger?
- The Footlab model makes Mamelodi Sundowns the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for USM Alger.
- Where and when is Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger played?
- Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger is played on November 8, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Loftus Versfeld Stadium, in the CAF Super Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.