Mamelodi Sundowns vs Orlando Pirates: prediction and stats
Premier Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Loftus Versfeld Stadium, Tshwane
The Footlab model makes Orlando Pirates the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Mamelodi Sundowns. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mamelodi Sundowns vs Orlando Pirates?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Mamelodi Sundowns (2,029) and Orlando Pirates (2,026).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mamelodi Sundowns have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Orlando Pirates have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Golden Arrows(home) | 0-1 | 8 Cup |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Marumo Gallants(home) | 2-0 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kaizer Chiefs(away) | 1-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | TS Galaxy(away) | 3-2 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Polokwane City(home) | 3-2 | 8 Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sekhukhune United(away) | 1-0 | 8 Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Chippa United(away) | 3-0 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Amazulu(away) | 1-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Durban City(home) | 2-1 | 8 Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Milford FC(home) | 2-0 | Premier Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Mamelodi Sundowns win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Orlando Pirates win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2026 | Orlando Pirates 1-2 Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Mamelodi Sundowns 1-1 Orlando Pirates | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Mamelodi Sundowns 1-1 Orlando Pirates | 8 Cup |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Orlando Pirates 1-1 Mamelodi Sundowns | 8 Cup |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Orlando Pirates 2-1 Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Mamelodi Sundowns 4-1 Orlando Pirates | Premier Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Orlando Pirates vs Mamelodi Sundowns on Feb 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mamelodi Sundowns score 2.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Orlando Pirates score 1.5 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mamelodi Sundowns | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Orlando Pirates | 1.5 | 0.6 | 8 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mamelodi Sundowns sit 3rd in Premier Soccer League (7 points from 3 matches) and Orlando Pirates sit 1st (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orlando Pirates | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Orlando Pirates?
- The Footlab model makes Orlando Pirates the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Mamelodi Sundowns.
- Where and when is Mamelodi Sundowns vs Orlando Pirates played?
- Mamelodi Sundowns vs Orlando Pirates is played on January 9, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Loftus Versfeld Stadium, in the Premier Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.