Mamelodi Sundowns vs Richards Bay: prediction and stats
Premier Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Loftus Versfeld Stadium, Tshwane
The Footlab model makes Mamelodi Sundowns the favourite at 69%, against 20% for a draw and 11% for Richards Bay. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mamelodi Sundowns vs Richards Bay?
Mamelodi Sundowns is a heavy favourite: 2,029 Elo points against 1,710 — a 320-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mamelodi Sundowns have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Richards Bay have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Golden Arrows(home) | 0-1 | 8 Cup |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Marumo Gallants(home) | 2-0 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kaizer Chiefs(away) | 1-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | TS Galaxy(away) | 3-2 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Polokwane City(home) | 3-2 | 8 Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Durban City(away) | 1-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Chippa United(away) | 1-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Polokwane City(home) | 1-2 | Premier Soccer League |
| May 23, 2026 | Magesi(away) | 0-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Sekhukhune United(home) | 1-1 | Premier Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Mamelodi Sundowns win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Richards Bay win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Richards Bay 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Mamelodi Sundowns 4-1 Richards Bay | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Mamelodi Sundowns 4-0 Richards Bay | 8 Cup |
| Apr 30, 2025 | Mamelodi Sundowns 3-0 Richards Bay | Premier Soccer League |
| Dec 28, 2024 | Richards Bay 0-2 Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League |
| Apr 2, 2024 | Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 Richards Bay | Premier Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mamelodi Sundowns score 2.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Richards Bay score 0.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mamelodi Sundowns | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Richards Bay | 0.8 | 1.0 | 4 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mamelodi Sundowns sit 3rd in Premier Soccer League (7 points from 3 matches) and Richards Bay sit 11th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Richards Bay | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Richards Bay?
- The Footlab model makes Mamelodi Sundowns the favourite at 69%, against 20% for a draw and 11% for Richards Bay.
- Where and when is Mamelodi Sundowns vs Richards Bay played?
- Mamelodi Sundowns vs Richards Bay is played on January 23, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Loftus Versfeld Stadium, in the Premier Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.