Mamelodi Sundowns vs Richards Bay: prediction and stats
Premier Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Loftus Versfeld Stadium, Tshwane
The Footlab AI model makes Mamelodi Sundowns the favourite at 77%, against 16% for a draw and 7% for Richards Bay. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mamelodi Sundowns vs Richards Bay?
Mamelodi Sundowns is a heavy favourite: 2,091 Elo points against 1,691, a 399-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Richards Bay
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mamelodi Sundowns
4-2-3-1- 13I. Rayners
- 4T. Mokoena
- 17T. Matthews
- 11M. Allende
- 33C. Mailula
- 38S. Mthanti
- 3K. Ndamane
- 42Malibongwe Khoza
- 22T. Matuludi
- 23F. Basadien
- 30R. Williams
Richards Bay
4-3-3- 20M. Mthembu
- 27N. Xulu
- 19S. Nzama
- 77L. Khumalo
- 12S. Gumbi
- 8L. Zikhali
- 25S. Mcineka
- 22L. Mabuya
- 37S. Gwele
- 5T. Sikhakhane
- 1Ian Aubrey Otieno
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:10 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mamelodi Sundowns have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat; Richards Bay have 1, 8 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Richards Bay(away) | 4-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Orlando Pirates(away) | 2-0 | 8 Cup |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Al-Ahli Jeddah(home) | 2-1 | FIFA Intercontinental Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Chippa United(away) | 1-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Siwelele(home) | 3-0 | Premier Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Mamelodi Sundowns(home) | 1-4 | Premier Soccer League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sekhukhune United(home) | 2-3 | Premier Soccer League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Milford FC(away) | 1-5 | Premier Soccer League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Amazulu(home) | 1-2 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Kaizer Chiefs(home) | 2-2 | Premier Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Mamelodi Sundowns wins, 1 draw, 0 Richards Bay wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Richards Bay 1-4 Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Richards Bay 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Mamelodi Sundowns 4-1 Richards Bay | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Mamelodi Sundowns 4-0 Richards Bay | 8 Cup |
| Apr 30, 2025 | Mamelodi Sundowns 3-0 Richards Bay | Premier Soccer League |
| Dec 28, 2024 | Richards Bay 0-2 Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns on Oct 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mamelodi Sundowns score 2.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Richards Bay score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mamelodi Sundowns | 2.3 | 1.0 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Richards Bay | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mamelodi Sundowns sit 1st in Premier Soccer League (23 points from 9 matches) and Richards Bay sit 15th (3 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 8 | 23 |
| 15 | Richards Bay | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 3 |
A question about Mamelodi Sundowns vs Richards Bay?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Richards Bay?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mamelodi Sundowns the favourite at 77%, against 16% for a draw and 7% for Richards Bay.
- Where and when is Mamelodi Sundowns vs Richards Bay played?
- Mamelodi Sundowns vs Richards Bay is played on January 23, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Loftus Versfeld Stadium, in the Premier Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.