Mancha Real vs Marbelli: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 1Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud, Mancha Real
The Footlab model makes Marbelli the favourite at 34%, against 34% for a draw and 32% for Mancha Real. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mancha Real vs Marbelli?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Mancha Real (1,691) and Marbelli (1,774).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mancha Real have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Marbelli have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Granada II(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Huétor Vega(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Huétor Tájar(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Granada II(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Huétor Vega(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Huétor Tájar(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | UD Melilla II(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Mancha Real win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Marbelli win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Marbelli 1-0 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Mancha Real 0-1 Marbelli | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Mancha Real 2-3 Marbelli | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Marbelli 0-1 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Marbelli vs Mancha Real on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mancha Real score 1.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Marbelli score 0.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 29% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mancha Real | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Marbelli | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mancha Real sit 14th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (37 points from 34 matches) and Marbelli sit 6th (51 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Marbelli | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 36 | 28 | 51 |
| 14 | Mancha Real | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 30 | 38 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mancha Real vs Marbelli?
- The Footlab model makes Marbelli the favourite at 34%, against 34% for a draw and 32% for Mancha Real.
- Where and when is Mancha Real vs Marbelli played?
- Mancha Real vs Marbelli is played on September 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 29% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.