Malaga City vs Mancha Real: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal El Pozuelo, Torremolinos
The Footlab model makes Malaga City the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Mancha Real. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malaga City vs Mancha Real?
A very open match: only 98 Elo points separate Malaga City (1,593) and Mancha Real (1,691).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malaga City have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Mancha Real have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Arenas Armilla(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 4, 2025 | Polideportivo Almería(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 1, 2025 | Real Jaén(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Mancha Real(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Mijas Las Lagunas(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Granada II(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Huétor Vega(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Huétor Tájar(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Malaga City win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Mancha Real win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2025 | Malaga City 4-1 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Mancha Real 3-2 Malaga City | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Malaga City 1-0 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Nov 26, 2023 | Mancha Real 2-1 Malaga City | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Malaga City vs Mancha Real on Apr 27, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Malaga City score 1.0 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Mancha Real score 1.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga City | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Mancha Real | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mancha Real | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 30 | 38 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malaga City vs Mancha Real?
- The Footlab model makes Malaga City the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Mancha Real.
- Where and when is Malaga City vs Mancha Real played?
- Malaga City vs Mancha Real is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal El Pozuelo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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- Oct 18, 2026UD San PedrovsMarbelli
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