Manchester United vs Everton: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 29Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Old Trafford, Manchester
The Footlab model makes Manchester United the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Everton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manchester United vs Everton?
Manchester United starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (2,220 vs 2,110).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manchester United have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Everton have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hull City(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Lille(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Newcastle(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hamburger SV(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Manchester United win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Everton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2026 | Everton 0-1 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Manchester United 0-1 Everton | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Manchester United 2-2 Everton | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Everton 2-2 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Manchester United 4-0 Everton | Premier League |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Manchester United 2-0 Everton | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Everton vs Manchester United on Feb 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Manchester United score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Everton score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Everton | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manchester United sit 16th in Premier League (0 points from 1 matches) and Everton sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Manchester United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manchester United vs Everton?
- The Footlab model makes Manchester United the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Everton.
- Where and when is Manchester United vs Everton played?
- Manchester United vs Everton is played on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Old Trafford, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.