Manchester United vs Bayern München: prediction and stats
UEFA Champions LeagueMatchday 7Kick-off on January 20, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Old Trafford, Manchester
The Footlab AI model makes Bayern München the favourite at 72%, against 16% for a draw and 12% for Manchester United. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,760 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manchester United vs Bayern München?
Bayern München is a heavy favourite: 2,565 Elo points against 2,078, a 487-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Manchester United vs Bayern München
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Manchester United
4-2-3-1- 19B. Mbeumo
- 8Bruno Fernandes
- 10Matheus Cunha
- 16A. Diallo
- 20C. Baleba
- 37K. Mainoo
- 2Diogo Dalot
- 5H. Maguire
- 15L. Yoro
- 26A. Heaven
- 1S. Lammens
Bayern München
4-2-3-1- 9H. Kane
- 17M. Olise
- 6J. Kimmich
- 42L. Karl
- 8T. Bischof
- 19A. Davies
- 27K. Laimer
- 2D. Upamecano
- 44J. Stanišić
- 4J. Tah
- 1M. Neuer
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 06:16 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manchester United have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Bayern München have 10, 5 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 4-4 | Premier League |
| Nov 3, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Como(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05(away) | 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 1. FC Magdeburg(home) | 6-1 | DFB Pokal |
| Oct 25, 2026 | SC Freiburg(away) | 3-1 | Bundesliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Manchester United wins, 1 draw, 3 Bayern München wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2023 | Manchester United 0-1 Bayern München | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 20, 2023 | Bayern München 4-3 Manchester United | UEFA Champions League |
| Apr 9, 2014 | Bayern München 3-1 Manchester United | UEFA Champions League |
| Apr 1, 2014 | Manchester United 1-1 Bayern München | UEFA Champions League |
Last archived meeting: Manchester United vs Bayern München on Dec 12, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Manchester United score 1.6 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Bayern München score 3.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Bayern München | 3.4 | 1.1 | 4 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manchester United sit 17th in UEFA Champions League (6 points from 4 matches) and Bayern München sit 13th (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bayern München | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 8 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
A question about Manchester United vs Bayern München?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manchester United vs Bayern München?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bayern München the favourite at 72%, against 16% for a draw and 12% for Manchester United.
- Where and when is Manchester United vs Bayern München played?
- Manchester United vs Bayern München is played on January 20, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Old Trafford, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.