Manchester United vs Liverpool: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueMatchday 22Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Old Trafford, Manchester
The Footlab AI model makes Manchester United the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Liverpool. The most likely score is 1-1. If Manchester United wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 6,019 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manchester United vs Liverpool?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Manchester United (2,078) and Liverpool (2,171).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Manchester United vs Liverpool
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Manchester United
4-2-3-1- 19B. Mbeumo
- 16A. Diallo
- 8Bruno Fernandes
- 10Matheus Cunha
- 18Y. Tielemans
- 37K. Mainoo
- 5H. Maguire
- 2Diogo Dalot
- 15L. Yoro
- 3N. Mazraoui
- 1S. Lammens
Liverpool
4-2-3-1- 9A. Isak
- 10A. Mac Allister
- 29B. Barcola
- 18C. Gakpo
- 7F. Wirtz
- 8D. Szoboszlai
- 4V. van Dijk
- 5J. Jacquet
- 33R. Araújo
- 6M. Kerkez
- 1Alisson Becker
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 06:27 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manchester United have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Liverpool have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 4-4 | Premier League |
| Nov 3, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Como(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Crystal Palace(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Nov 4, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Chelsea(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Manchester United wins, 2 draws, 2 Liverpool wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Manchester United 3-2 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Liverpool 1-2 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Liverpool 2-2 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Manchester United 0-3 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Manchester United 0-3 Liverpool | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Manchester United 2-2 Liverpool | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Manchester United vs Liverpool on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Manchester United score 1.6 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Liverpool score 2.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Liverpool | 2.0 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manchester United sit 18th in Premier League (8 points from 10 matches) and Liverpool sit 4th (18 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 18 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 8 |
A question about Manchester United vs Liverpool?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manchester United vs Liverpool?
- The Footlab AI model makes Manchester United the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Liverpool.
- Where and when is Manchester United vs Liverpool played?
- Manchester United vs Liverpool is played on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Old Trafford, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.