Marbelli vs Arenas Armilla: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal, San Pedro de Alcántara
The Footlab AI model makes Marbelli the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Arenas Armilla. The most likely score is 1-1. If Marbelli wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,831 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 29, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marbelli vs Arenas Armilla?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Marbelli (1,791) and Arenas Armilla (1,843).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Marbelli vs Arenas Armilla
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Marbelli
Not enough data to predict the Marbelli lineup.
Arenas Armilla
Not enough data to predict the Arenas Armilla lineup.
Computed on October 29, 2026 at 05:57 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marbelli have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Arenas Armilla have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Atlético Porcuna(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | UD San Pedro(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alhaurino(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Malaga City(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Torre del Mar(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | UD San Pedro(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Malaga City(home) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Torre del Mar(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Huétor Vega(home) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Marbelli win, 1 draw, 2 Arenas Armilla wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Arenas Armilla 2-1 Marbelli | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Marbelli 1-0 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 4, 2025 | Marbelli 1-1 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Arenas Armilla 1-0 Marbelli | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Arenas Armilla vs Marbelli on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Marbelli score 1.0 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Arenas Armilla score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marbelli | 1.0 | 0.8 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Arenas Armilla | 1.6 | 1.1 | 7 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marbelli sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (13 points from 7 matches) and Arenas Armilla sit 2nd (18 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arenas Armilla | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 18 |
| 5 | Marbelli | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 13 |
A question about Marbelli vs Arenas Armilla?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marbelli vs Arenas Armilla?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marbelli the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Arenas Armilla.
- Where and when is Marbelli vs Arenas Armilla played?
- Marbelli vs Arenas Armilla is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 20, 2026MelillavsMancha Real
- Dec 20, 2026Atlético PorcunavsAtletico de Marbella
- Dec 20, 2026Granada IIvsMalaga City
- Dec 20, 2026Almería IIvsTorre del Mar
- Dec 20, 2026MotrilvsCiudad de Torredonjimeno
- Dec 20, 2026Málaga IIvsAlhaurino
- Dec 20, 2026Churriana VegavsHuétor Vega
- Dec 20, 2026CantoriavsUD San Pedro