Marbelli vs Arenas Armilla: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal, San Pedro de Alcántara
The Footlab model makes Marbelli the favourite at 42%, against 32% for a draw and 27% for Arenas Armilla. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marbelli vs Arenas Armilla?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Marbelli (1,773) and Arenas Armilla (1,783).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marbelli have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Arenas Armilla have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Granada II(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Huétor Vega(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Huétor Tájar(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | UD Melilla II(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(away) | 2-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Motril(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 31, 2026 | Motril(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 24, 2026 | Torre del Mar(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Marbelli win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Arenas Armilla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Arenas Armilla 2-1 Marbelli | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Marbelli 1-0 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 4, 2025 | Marbelli 1-1 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Arenas Armilla 1-0 Marbelli | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Arenas Armilla vs Marbelli on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Marbelli score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Arenas Armilla score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marbelli | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Arenas Armilla | 1.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marbelli sit 6th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (51 points from 34 matches) and Arenas Armilla sit 4th (54 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Arenas Armilla | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 29 | 54 |
| 6 | Marbelli | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 36 | 28 | 51 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marbelli vs Arenas Armilla?
- The Footlab model makes Marbelli the favourite at 42%, against 32% for a draw and 27% for Arenas Armilla.
- Where and when is Marbelli vs Arenas Armilla played?
- Marbelli vs Arenas Armilla is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 20, 2026MelillavsMancha Real
- Dec 20, 2026Atlético PorcunavsAtletico de Marbella
- Dec 20, 2026Granada IIvsMalaga City
- Dec 20, 2026Almería IIvsTorre del Mar
- Dec 20, 2026MotrilvsCiudad de Torredonjimeno
- Dec 20, 2026Málaga IIvsAlhaurino
- Dec 20, 2026Churriana VegavsHuétor Vega
- Dec 20, 2026CantoriavsUD San Pedro