Melilla vs Mancha Real: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Álvarez Claro, Melilla
The Footlab AI model makes Melilla the favourite at 64%, against 23% for a draw and 13% for Mancha Real. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,475 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melilla vs Mancha Real?
Melilla starts as the favourite with a 195-point Elo edge (1,850 vs 1,655).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Melilla vs Mancha Real
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Melilla
4-3-3- 10Víctor Morillo
- 21Carlos Bravo
- BB. Kavtaradze
- AAdrián Tovar
- 19Armando
- 19Iván Ramos
- 4Manuel Galán
- 3Fran Varela
- 3Lolo González
- DDiego Ceballos
- EEdua Loscos
Mancha Real
Not enough data to predict the Mancha Real lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 05:06 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melilla have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Mancha Real have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | UD San Pedro(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Malaga City(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Torre del Mar(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Huétor Vega(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Torre del Mar(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Huétor Vega(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico de Marbella(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Melilla wins, 1 draw, 1 Mancha Real win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2022 | Melilla 0-2 Mancha Real | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Jan 26, 2022 | Mancha Real 2-2 Melilla | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
Last archived meeting: Melilla vs Mancha Real on May 15, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Melilla score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mancha Real score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melilla | 1.6 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Mancha Real | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Melilla sit 1st in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (18 points from 6 matches) and Mancha Real sit 17th (2 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melilla | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 18 |
| 17 | Mancha Real | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 2 |
A question about Melilla vs Mancha Real?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melilla vs Mancha Real?
- The Footlab AI model makes Melilla the favourite at 64%, against 23% for a draw and 13% for Mancha Real.
- Where and when is Melilla vs Mancha Real played?
- Melilla vs Mancha Real is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Álvarez Claro, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 20, 2026Atlético PorcunavsAtletico de Marbella
- Dec 20, 2026Granada IIvsMalaga City
- Dec 20, 2026Almería IIvsTorre del Mar
- Dec 20, 2026MotrilvsCiudad de Torredonjimeno
- Dec 20, 2026Málaga IIvsAlhaurino
- Dec 20, 2026MarbellivsArenas Armilla
- Dec 20, 2026Churriana VegavsHuétor Vega
- Dec 20, 2026CantoriavsUD San Pedro