Marbelli vs Atlético Porcuna: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal, San Pedro de Alcántara
The Footlab model makes Marbelli the favourite at 48%, against 30% for a draw and 23% for Atlético Porcuna. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marbelli vs Atlético Porcuna?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Marbelli (1,773) and Atlético Porcuna (1,713).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marbelli have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Atlético Porcuna have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Granada II(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Huétor Vega(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Huétor Tájar(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | UD Melilla II(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Motril(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Torre del Mar(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | El Palo(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UD San Pedro(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Marbelli win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Atlético Porcuna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Marbelli 1-0 Atlético Porcuna | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Atlético Porcuna 1-0 Marbelli | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Atlético Porcuna 1-1 Marbelli | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Marbelli 2-0 Atlético Porcuna | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Marbelli vs Atlético Porcuna on Feb 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Marbelli score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Atlético Porcuna score 1.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marbelli | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Atlético Porcuna | 1.2 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marbelli sit 6th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (51 points from 34 matches) and Atlético Porcuna sit 9th (46 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Marbelli | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 36 | 28 | 51 |
| 9 | Atlético Porcuna | 34 | 14 | 4 | 16 | 41 | 39 | 46 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marbelli vs Atlético Porcuna?
- The Footlab model makes Marbelli the favourite at 48%, against 30% for a draw and 23% for Atlético Porcuna.
- Where and when is Marbelli vs Atlético Porcuna played?
- Marbelli vs Atlético Porcuna is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 25, 2026MelillavsCantoria
- Oct 25, 2026Almería IIvsAtletico de Marbella
- Oct 25, 2026Ciudad de TorredonjimenovsMalaga City
- Oct 25, 2026Huétor VegavsTorre del Mar
- Oct 25, 2026Mancha RealvsAlhaurino
- Oct 25, 2026MotrilvsMálaga II
- Oct 25, 2026Arenas ArmillavsUD San Pedro
- Oct 25, 2026Churriana VegavsGranada II