Motril vs Málaga II: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Escribano Castilla, Motril
The Footlab model makes Motril the favourite at 55%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Málaga II. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Motril vs Málaga II?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Motril (1,850) and Málaga II (1,775).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motril have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Málaga II have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 31, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 24, 2026 | Churriana Vega(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 17, 2026 | Churriana Vega(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 10, 2026 | Atlético Porcuna(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Melilla(home) | 3-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Puente Genil(away) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Antoniano(home) | 3-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Ucam Murcia(away) | 0-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Real Jaén(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Motril win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Málaga II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | Motril 0-1 Málaga II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 13, 2024 | Málaga II 5-0 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Málaga II 1-1 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Motril 2-0 Málaga II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Mar 26, 2023 | Málaga II 4-1 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Dec 4, 2022 | Motril 0-0 Málaga II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
How many goals should we expect?
Motril score 1.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Málaga II score 1.3 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motril | 1.2 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Málaga II | 1.3 | 2.3 | 0 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Motril | 34 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 55 | 29 | 65 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Motril vs Málaga II?
- The Footlab model makes Motril the favourite at 55%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Málaga II.
- Where and when is Motril vs Málaga II played?
- Motril vs Málaga II is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Escribano Castilla, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 25, 2026MelillavsCantoria
- Oct 25, 2026Almería IIvsAtletico de Marbella
- Oct 25, 2026Ciudad de TorredonjimenovsMalaga City
- Oct 25, 2026Huétor VegavsTorre del Mar
- Oct 25, 2026Mancha RealvsAlhaurino
- Oct 25, 2026Arenas ArmillavsUD San Pedro
- Oct 25, 2026MarbellivsAtlético Porcuna
- Oct 25, 2026Churriana VegavsGranada II