Motril vs Málaga II: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Escribano Castilla, Motril
The Footlab AI model makes Motril the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Málaga II. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 3,247 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Motril vs Málaga II?
On Elo ratings, Motril has 1,878 points and Málaga II 1,808.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Motril vs Málaga II
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Motril
Not enough data to predict the Motril lineup.
Málaga II
4-3-3- JJuani
- JJuanma Hernández
- RRubén Sánchez
- 32Rafael Garrido
- 44Jesús Martin
- AAlejandro Valcarce
- 38Pablo Arriaza
- 32Miguel Ángel
- IIván Benito Mancera
- ÁÁngel Mateo
- 30Andrés Céspedes
Computed on October 24, 2026 at 06:27 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motril have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Málaga II have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Cantoria(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atlético Porcuna(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | UD San Pedro(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Alhaurino(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Malaga City(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Churriana Vega(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Almería II(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Granada II(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Atletico de Marbella(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cantoria(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Motril win, 2 draws, 3 Málaga II wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | Motril 0-1 Málaga II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 13, 2024 | Málaga II 5-0 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Málaga II 1-1 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Motril 2-0 Málaga II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Mar 26, 2023 | Málaga II 4-1 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Dec 4, 2022 | Motril 0-0 Málaga II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
How many goals should we expect?
Motril score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Málaga II score 1.6 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motril | 1.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Málaga II | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Motril sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (15 points from 7 matches) and Málaga II sit 7th (11 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Motril | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Málaga II | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 11 |
A question about Motril vs Málaga II?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Motril vs Málaga II?
- The Footlab AI model makes Motril the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Málaga II.
- Where and when is Motril vs Málaga II played?
- Motril vs Málaga II is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Escribano Castilla, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 24, 2026Melilla2-0Cantoria
- Oct 25, 2026Almería IIvsAtletico de Marbella
- Oct 25, 2026Huétor VegavsTorre del Mar
- Oct 25, 2026Mancha RealvsAlhaurino
- Oct 25, 2026Arenas ArmillavsUD San Pedro
- Oct 25, 2026Churriana VegavsGranada II
- Oct 25, 2026MarbellivsAtlético Porcuna
- Oct 25, 2026Ciudad de TorredonjimenovsMalaga City