Maria da Fonte vs Maia Lidador: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group AGroup A - 18Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Moinhos Novos, Póvoa de Lanhoso
The Footlab model makes Maria da Fonte the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Maia Lidador. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maria da Fonte vs Maia Lidador?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Maria da Fonte (1,717) and Maia Lidador (1,761).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maria da Fonte have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Maia Lidador have 0, 0 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Celoricense(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vinhais(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Fafe(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Brito(home) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Arouca(home) | 0-5 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Ponte da Barca(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | SC Braga B(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Brito(away) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
Maria da Fonte score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Maia Lidador score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maria da Fonte | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Maia Lidador | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0 | 2/3 | 2/3 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maria da Fonte sit 9th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A (3 points from 2 matches) and Maia Lidador sit 11th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Maria da Fonte | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Maia Lidador | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maria da Fonte vs Maia Lidador?
- The Footlab model makes Maria da Fonte the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Maia Lidador.
- Where and when is Maria da Fonte vs Maia Lidador played?
- Maria da Fonte vs Maia Lidador is played on February 14, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Moinhos Novos, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.