Maribor vs Celje: prediction and stats
1. SNLRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Ljudski vrt, Maribor
The Footlab AI model makes Celje the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Maribor. The most likely score is 1-1. If Celje wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maribor vs Celje?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Maribor (1,850) and Celje (1,895).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Maribor vs Celje
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Maribor
4-3-3- 70I. Tshipamba
- 17J. Mlakar
- 99B. Feta
- 7T. Cipot
- 4N. Viher
- 5Ž. Jevšenak
- 25M. Blažič
- 6B. M'bondo
- 21V. Koderman
- 23Ž. Karničnik
- 1A. Jug
Celje
4-2-3-1- 47A. Kučys
- 19M. Zabukovnik
- 8M. Kvesić
- 77M. Ivanšek
- 10S. Sešlar
- 91Y. Dukuly
- 2P. Širvys
- 6A. Tutyškinas
- 11M. Avdyli
- 44Ł. Bejger
- 1Žan-Luk Leban
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maribor have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Celje have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | HNK Gorica(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Aluminij(home) | 2-2 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Radomlje(away) | 3-0 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Mura(home) | 1-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Nafta(away) | 3-2 | 1. SNL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Mura(away) | 0-0 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bravo(away) | 1-2 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Koper(home) | 0-1 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Aluminij(away) | 2-0 | 1. SNL |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Maribor wins, 3 draws, 3 Celje wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Celje 1-1 Maribor | 1. SNL |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Celje 1-0 Maribor | 1. SNL |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Maribor 3-3 Celje | 1. SNL |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Celje 3-0 Maribor | 1. SNL |
| Jul 20, 2025 | Maribor 1-2 Celje | 1. SNL |
| May 7, 2025 | Maribor 1-1 Celje | 1. SNL |
How many goals should we expect?
Maribor score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Celje score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maribor | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Celje | 1.2 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maribor sit 1st in 1. SNL (20 points from 10 matches) and Celje sit 7th (12 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 19 | 8 | 20 |
| 7 | Celje | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
A question about Maribor vs Celje?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maribor vs Celje?
- The Footlab AI model makes Celje the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Maribor.
- Where and when is Maribor vs Celje played?
- Maribor vs Celje is played on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Ljudski vrt, in the 1. SNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.