Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana: prediction and stats
1. SNLRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Športni Park Aluminij, Kidričevo
The Footlab model makes Aluminij the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Olimpija Ljubljana. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana?
A very open match: only 99 Elo points separate Aluminij (1,685) and Olimpija Ljubljana (1,784).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aluminij have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Olimpija Ljubljana have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Brinje-Grosuplje(home) | 4-2 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Radomlje(away) | 3-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Nafta(home) | 1-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Olimpija Ljubljana(away) | 0-1 | 1. SNL |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Nafta(home) | 1-0 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Maribor(home) | 1-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Celje(away) | 0-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Aluminij(home) | 1-0 | 1. SNL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Mura(away) | 0-1 | 1. SNL |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Aluminij win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Olimpija Ljubljana win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | Olimpija Ljubljana 1-0 Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Olimpija Ljubljana 2-1 Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Aluminij 1-2 Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Olimpija Ljubljana 1-1 Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Aluminij 0-3 Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Olimpija Ljubljana 5-0 Aluminij | 1. SNL |
Last archived meeting: Olimpija Ljubljana vs Aluminij on Aug 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aluminij score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Olimpija Ljubljana score 1.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminij | 0.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Olimpija Ljubljana | 1.2 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aluminij sit 3rd in 1. SNL (8 points from 5 matches) and Olimpija Ljubljana sit 7th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Aluminij | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana?
- The Footlab model makes Aluminij the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Olimpija Ljubljana.
- Where and when is Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana played?
- Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana is played on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Športni Park Aluminij, in the 1. SNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.