Maribor vs Nafta: prediction and stats
1. SNLRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Ljudski vrt, Maribor
The Footlab model makes Maribor the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Nafta. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maribor vs Nafta?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Maribor (1,839) and Nafta (1,761).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maribor have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Nafta have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bravo(home) | 3-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Olimpija Ljubljana(away) | 1-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Koper(home) | 2-0 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Celje(away) | 1-1 | 1. SNL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Brinje-Grosuplje(home) | 3-0 | 1. SNL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Olimpija Ljubljana(away) | 0-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Celje(home) | 1-3 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Aluminij(away) | 1-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mura(home) | 5-2 | 1. SNL |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Bravo(away) | 3-0 | 1. SNL |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Maribor win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Nafta win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2025 | Maribor 0-1 Nafta | 1. SNL |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Nafta 1-1 Maribor | 1. SNL |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Maribor 4-0 Nafta | 1. SNL |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Nafta 0-3 Maribor | 1. SNL |
| Jan 16, 2024 | Nafta 0-3 Maribor | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Maribor score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Nafta score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maribor | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Nafta | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maribor sit 1st in 1. SNL (12 points from 6 matches) and Nafta sit 10th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Nafta | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| 10 | Nafta | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maribor vs Nafta?
- The Footlab model makes Maribor the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Nafta.
- Where and when is Maribor vs Nafta played?
- Maribor vs Nafta is played on November 21, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Ljudski vrt, in the 1. SNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.