Maribor vs Nafta: prediction and stats
1. SNLRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Ljudski vrt, Maribor
The Footlab AI model makes Maribor the favourite at 62%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Nafta. The most likely score is 1-1. If Maribor wins, the most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maribor vs Nafta?
On Elo ratings, Maribor has 1,859 points and Nafta 1,777.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Maribor vs Nafta
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Maribor
4-3-3- 70I. Tshipamba
- 17J. Mlakar
- 99B. Feta
- 7T. Cipot
- 5Ž. Jevšenak
- 8Claude Gonçalves
- 25M. Blažič
- 6B. M'bondo
- 21V. Koderman
- 23Ž. Karničnik
- 1A. Jug
Nafta
4-3-3- 17A. Maroša
- 7Josip Ivan Zorica
- 21Shyon Omrani
- 41Kimi Lavrencic
- 18A. Pihler
- 8M. Ogwuche
- 2R. Pirtovšek
- 33L. Poredoš
- 98Á. Drágoner
- 20Andre Ferreira
- 1Lucas Erjavsek
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 06:05 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maribor have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Nafta have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Brinje-Grosuplje(away) | 2-1 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 28, 2026 | HNK Gorica(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Aluminij(home) | 2-2 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Radomlje(away) | 3-0 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Mura(home) | 1-1 | 1. SNL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Bravo(home) | 1-0 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Koper(away) | 0-2 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Brinje-Grosuplje(away) | 2-1 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Radomlje(home) | 3-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Maribor(home) | 2-3 | 1. SNL |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Maribor wins, 1 draw, 1 Nafta win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | Nafta 2-3 Maribor | 1. SNL |
| May 25, 2025 | Maribor 0-1 Nafta | 1. SNL |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Nafta 1-1 Maribor | 1. SNL |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Maribor 4-0 Nafta | 1. SNL |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Nafta 0-3 Maribor | 1. SNL |
| Jan 16, 2024 | Nafta 0-3 Maribor | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Maribor score 1.8 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Nafta score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maribor | 1.8 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Nafta | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maribor sit 1st in 1. SNL (23 points from 11 matches) and Nafta sit 4th (16 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 21 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | Nafta | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 16 | 16 |
A question about Maribor vs Nafta?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maribor vs Nafta?
- The Footlab AI model makes Maribor the favourite at 62%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Nafta.
- Where and when is Maribor vs Nafta played?
- Maribor vs Nafta is played on November 21, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Ljudski vrt, in the 1. SNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.