Maritimo vs Alverca: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on May 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Marítimo, Ilha da Madeira
The Footlab AI model makes Maritimo the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Alverca. The most likely score is 1-1. If Maritimo wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maritimo vs Alverca?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate Maritimo (2,062) and Alverca (2,153).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Maritimo vs Alverca
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Maritimo
4-2-3-1- 17Adrián Butzke
- 14Raphael Guzzo
- 10Martín Tejón
- 8M. Dominguez
- 18V. Danilović
- 6Rodrigo Andrade
- 2Igor Julião
- 23Paulo Henrique
- 44Romain Correia
- 22G. Szalai
- 30Fran Vieites
Alverca
3-4-3- 22Figueiredo
- 10Chiquinho
- 19D. Camara
- 55Francisco Chissumba
- 6D. Gui
- 35Rayan
- 20Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
- 12I. James
- 21Sergi Gómez
- 14S. Baseya
- 31Matheus Mendes
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 06:44 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maritimo have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Alverca have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Moreirense(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 4-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nacional(away) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Maritimo wins, 0 draws, 2 Alverca wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2025 | Alverca 5-0 Maritimo | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Maritimo 1-2 Alverca | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Maritimo score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Alverca score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Alverca | 1.3 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maritimo sit 11th in Primeira Liga (8 points from 8 matches) and Alverca sit 8th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 8 |
A question about Maritimo vs Alverca?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maritimo vs Alverca?
- The Footlab AI model makes Maritimo the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Alverca.
- Where and when is Maritimo vs Alverca played?
- Maritimo vs Alverca is played on May 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Marítimo, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.