Moreirense vs Rio Ave: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on May 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
The Footlab AI model makes Moreirense the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Rio Ave. The most likely score is 1-1. If Moreirense wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moreirense vs Rio Ave?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Moreirense (2,046) and Rio Ave (2,016).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Moreirense vs Rio Ave
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Moreirense
4-2-3-1- 79L. Vonić
- 23N. John
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
- 65Guilherme Liberato
- 10Kiko Bondoso
- 19Tiago Andrade
- 66Gilberto Batista
- 27Kiko
- 26Maracás
- 76Dinis Pinto
- 13André Ferreira
Rio Ave
4-2-3-1- 11J. Blesa
- 7Diogo Bezerra
- 5A. Ntoi
- 79M. Patricio
- 54G. Liavas
- 80S. Clemmensen
- 20João Tomé
- 39Gustavo Mancha
- 17M. Vrousai
- 23F. Petrasso
- 32Vitor Hugo
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 11:39 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moreirense have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Rio Ave have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 4, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 3-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Moreirense wins, 1 draw, 2 Rio Ave wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2026 | Rio Ave 1-2 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Moreirense 3-1 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Moreirense 0-2 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Rio Ave 3-2 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 13, 2024 | Rio Ave 1-2 Moreirense | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Moreirense 0-0 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rio Ave vs Moreirense on Feb 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Moreirense score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Rio Ave score 1.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Rio Ave | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moreirense sit 12th in Primeira Liga (8 points from 8 matches) and Rio Ave sit 14th (7 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 8 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 7 |
A question about Moreirense vs Rio Ave?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moreirense vs Rio Ave?
- The Footlab AI model makes Moreirense the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Rio Ave.
- Where and when is Moreirense vs Rio Ave played?
- Moreirense vs Rio Ave is played on May 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.