Match

GIL Vicente vs Nacional: prediction and stats

Primeira LigaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on May 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

GIL VicenteNacional

The Footlab model makes GIL Vicente the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Nacional. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win GIL Vicente vs Nacional?

A very open match: only 67 Elo points separate GIL Vicente (2,050) and Nacional (1,982).

GIL Vicente win52 %
Draw26 %
Nacional win22 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, GIL Vicente have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Nacional have 5, 4 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

GIL Vicente
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 9, 2026Rio Ave(home)1-0Primeira Liga
Jul 25, 2026Moreirense(home)2-2Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026Felgueiras 1932(home)1-1Friendlies Clubs
May 16, 2026Sporting CP(away)0-3Primeira Liga
May 11, 2026Arouca(home)1-3Primeira Liga
Nacional
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 23, 2026Guimaraes(away)0-1Primeira Liga
Aug 16, 2026Estoril(home)2-0Primeira Liga
Aug 10, 2026Santa Clara(away)2-2Primeira Liga
Jul 23, 2026Estrela(away)0-2Friendlies Clubs
Jul 22, 2026Leganes(home)0-0Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 6 GIL Vicente win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Nacional win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Jan 17, 2026GIL Vicente 2-1 NacionalPrimeira Liga
Aug 9, 2025Nacional 0-2 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
Apr 19, 2025Nacional 0-3 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
Dec 7, 2024GIL Vicente 2-1 NacionalPrimeira Liga
Nov 27, 2022GIL Vicente 2-0 NacionalTaça da Liga
Mar 19, 2021GIL Vicente 2-0 NacionalPrimeira Liga

Last archived meeting: GIL Vicente vs Nacional on Jan 17, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

GIL Vicente score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Nacional score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
GIL Vicente1.21.539/1510/15
Nacional1.11.164/153/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

GIL Vicente sit 8th in Primeira Liga (3 points from 1 matches) and Nacional sit 7th (4 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
7Nacional3111434
8GIL Vicente1100103

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for GIL Vicente vs Nacional?
The Footlab model makes GIL Vicente the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Nacional.
Where and when is GIL Vicente vs Nacional played?
GIL Vicente vs Nacional is played on May 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, in the Primeira Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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