Maritimo vs Arouca: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 21Kick-off on February 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Marítimo, Ilha da Madeira
The Footlab AI model makes Arouca the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Maritimo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Arouca wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,373 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maritimo vs Arouca?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Maritimo (2,062) and Arouca (2,156).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Maritimo vs Arouca
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Maritimo
4-2-3-1- 17Adrián Butzke
- 14Raphael Guzzo
- 10Martín Tejón
- 8M. Dominguez
- 18V. Danilović
- 6Rodrigo Andrade
- 2Igor Julião
- 23Paulo Henrique
- 44Romain Correia
- 22G. Szalai
- 30Fran Vieites
Arouca
4-2-3-1- 17Barbero
- 7N. Djouahra
- 19A. Trezza
- 8T. Fukui
- 6E. van Ee
- 10Pablo Gozálbez
- 28Tiago Esgaio
- 3José Fontán
- 18O. Lebedenko
- 15Javi Sánchez
- 12I. de Arruabarrena
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 03:52 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maritimo have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Arouca have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Moreirense(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Maritimo wins, 2 draws, 2 Arouca wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Arouca 2-1 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 8, 2023 | Arouca 1-0 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 23, 2022 | Maritimo 1-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 14, 2022 | Arouca 0-3 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2021 | Maritimo 2-2 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 19, 2017 | Maritimo 3-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Maritimo score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Arouca score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Arouca | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maritimo sit 11th in Primeira Liga (8 points from 8 matches) and Arouca sit 5th (14 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 14 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 8 |
A question about Maritimo vs Arouca?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maritimo vs Arouca?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arouca the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Maritimo.
- Where and when is Maritimo vs Arouca played?
- Maritimo vs Arouca is played on February 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Marítimo, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.