Moreirense vs Casa Pia: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 21Kick-off on February 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
The Footlab AI model makes Moreirense the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Casa Pia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Moreirense wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,484 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moreirense vs Casa Pia?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Moreirense (2,052) and Casa Pia (1,994).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Moreirense vs Casa Pia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Moreirense
4-2-3-1- 79L. Vonić
- 23N. John
- 19Tiago Andrade
- 65Guilherme Liberato
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
- 10Kiko Bondoso
- 27Kiko
- 66Gilberto Batista
- 76Dinis Pinto
- 4Kevyn Monteiro
- 13André Ferreira
Casa Pia
4-2-3-1- 9Henrique Araújo
- 11M. El Boukammiri
- 80L. Ofori
- 77B. Pauwels
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
- 24S. Pérez
- 18Geraldes
- 75Pedro Rosas
- 43David Sousa
- 3Kaly
- 1P. Sequeira
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 01:43 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moreirense have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Casa Pia have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 17, 2026 | AVS(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 9, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alpendorada(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Moreirense wins, 1 draw, 1 Casa Pia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | Casa Pia 0-1 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Casa Pia 1-1 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Moreirense 2-1 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Moreirense 3-2 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Casa Pia 3-1 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| May 12, 2024 | Casa Pia 0-1 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Casa Pia vs Moreirense on Aug 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Moreirense score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Casa Pia score 0.8 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Casa Pia | 0.8 | 1.8 | 4 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moreirense sit 9th in Primeira Liga (14 points from 10 matches) and Casa Pia sit 17th (7 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Moreirense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 14 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 7 |
A question about Moreirense vs Casa Pia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moreirense vs Casa Pia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Moreirense the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Casa Pia.
- Where and when is Moreirense vs Casa Pia played?
- Moreirense vs Casa Pia is played on February 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.