Arouca vs Maritimo: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 4Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
The Footlab model makes Arouca the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Maritimo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arouca vs Maritimo?
A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Arouca (2,061) and Maritimo (1,995).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arouca have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Maritimo have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Machico(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Camacha(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Arouca win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Maritimo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | Arouca 1-0 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 23, 2022 | Maritimo 1-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 14, 2022 | Arouca 0-3 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2021 | Maritimo 2-2 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 19, 2017 | Maritimo 3-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 30, 2016 | Arouca 1-0 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Arouca score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Maritimo score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 1.5 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Maritimo | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arouca sit 1st in Primeira Liga (6 points from 2 matches) and Maritimo sit 3rd (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arouca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Maritimo | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Maritimo?
- The Footlab model makes Arouca the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Maritimo.
- Where and when is Arouca vs Maritimo played?
- Arouca vs Maritimo is played on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.