Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkara: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Victor Tedesco Stadium, Hamrun
The Footlab AI model makes Marsaxlokk the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Birkirkara. The most likely score is 1-1. If Marsaxlokk wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkara?
A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate Marsaxlokk (1,596) and Birkirkara (1,507).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkara
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Marsaxlokk
4-4-2- 10Dodo
- 9R. Lindén
- 25J. Minala
- 6N. Muscat
- 8U. Arias
- 20M. García
- 4O. El Hasni
- 27L. Aguirre
- 5E. Pepe
- 3Weder
- 22C. Mafoumbi
Birkirkara
4-3-3- 99Amarildo
- 28S. Brewer
- 27F. Sasere
- 30Pablo
- 8Rafa Santos
- 10J. Busuttil
- 3Frazan
- 22Z. Muscat
- 77A. Garzia
- 97Kadu
- 1F. Ondoa
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 03:41 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marsaxlokk have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Birkirkara have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Zabbar St. Patrick(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Hamrun Spartans(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Floriana(away) | 5-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Mosta(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Valletta FC(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Valletta FC(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Zabbar St. Patrick(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Hibernians(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Sliema Wanderers(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Mosta(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Marsaxlokk wins, 3 draws, 1 Birkirkara win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Birkirkara 0-1 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Marsaxlokk 2-1 Birkirkara | Premier League |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Marsaxlokk 0-0 Birkirkara | Premier League |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Birkirkara 1-1 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Birkirkara 1-1 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
| Aug 29, 2024 | Marsaxlokk 0-2 Birkirkara | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Birkirkara vs Marsaxlokk on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Marsaxlokk score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Birkirkara score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marsaxlokk | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Birkirkara | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marsaxlokk sit 3rd in Premier League (14 points from 7 matches) and Birkirkara sit 8th (10 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Marsaxlokk | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 14 |
| 8 | Birkirkara | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 10 |
A question about Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkara?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkara?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marsaxlokk the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Birkirkara.
- Where and when is Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkara played?
- Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkara is played on October 16, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Victor Tedesco Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.