Marsaxlokk vs Mosta: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Marsaxlokk Ground, Marsaxlokk
The Footlab model makes Marsaxlokk the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Mosta. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marsaxlokk vs Mosta?
Marsaxlokk starts as the favourite with a 153-point Elo edge (1,571 vs 1,418).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marsaxlokk have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Mosta have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Hibernians(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Balzan FC(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gzira United(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Balzan FC(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Hamrun Spartans(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Naxxar Lions(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Birkirkara(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Hibernians(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Marsaxlokk win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Mosta win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Mosta 1-2 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Marsaxlokk 3-1 Mosta | Premier League |
| Apr 4, 2025 | Mosta 0-4 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
| Feb 14, 2025 | Mosta 2-1 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Marsaxlokk 0-3 Mosta | FA Trophy |
| Sep 23, 2024 | Marsaxlokk 2-4 Mosta | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Marsaxlokk score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Mosta score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marsaxlokk | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Mosta | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marsaxlokk sit 4th in Premier League (4 points from 2 matches) and Mosta sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Marsaxlokk | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Mosta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marsaxlokk vs Mosta?
- The Footlab model makes Marsaxlokk the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Mosta.
- Where and when is Marsaxlokk vs Mosta played?
- Marsaxlokk vs Mosta is played on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Marsaxlokk Ground, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.