Marseille vs Lyon: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 25Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Stade Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
The Footlab AI model makes Marseille the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Lyon. The most likely score is 1-1. If Marseille wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marseille vs Lyon?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Marseille (2,055) and Lyon (2,137).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Marseille vs Lyon
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Marseille
4-2-3-1- 9A. Gouiri
- 8H. Abdelli
- 77A. Harit
- 14Igor Paixão
- 7A. Gomes
- 23P. Højbjerg
- 4C. Egan-Riley
- 33Emerson
- 21N. Aguerd
- 22T. Weah
- 12J. de Lange
Lyon
4-2-3-1- 17L. Openda
- 23T. Morton
- 8C. Tolisso
- 7E. Nuamah
- 2M. Bidstrup
- 10P. Šulc
- 20F. Bacher
- 13Z. Athekame
- 16Abner
- 21R. Kluivert
- 1D. Greif
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 05:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marseille have 6 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats; Lyon have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estac Troyes(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Beşiktaş(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Paris FC(home) | 2-3 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Lens(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Anderlecht(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Paris FC(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Auxerre(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Marseille wins, 0 draws, 2 Lyon wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Marseille 3-2 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Lyon 1-0 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Marseille 3-2 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Lyon 2-3 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 4, 2024 | Lyon 1-0 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 6, 2023 | Marseille 3-0 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Marseille score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lyon score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Lyon | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marseille sit 13th in Ligue 1 (6 points from 6 matches) and Lyon sit 4th (11 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 11 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
A question about Marseille vs Lyon?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marseille vs Lyon?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marseille the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Lyon.
- Where and when is Marseille vs Lyon played?
- Marseille vs Lyon is played on March 21, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Stade Orange Vélodrome, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.