Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 5Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stade Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
The Footlab model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Marseille. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain starts as the favourite with a 223-point Elo edge (2,299 vs 2,077).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marseille have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Paris Saint Germain have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Nimes(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lens(away) | 0-1 | Trophée des Champions |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Mallorca(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 30, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Marseille win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Paris Saint Germain win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 5-0 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Marseille | Trophée des Champions |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Marseille 1-0 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Marseille 0-3 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Marseille 0-2 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Paris Saint Germain vs Marseille on Feb 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Marseille score 1.6 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Paris Saint Germain score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 1.6 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.7 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain?
- The Footlab model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Marseille.
- Where and when is Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain played?
- Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain is played on September 20, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stade Orange Vélodrome, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.