Mathare United vs AFC Leopards: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Moi International Sports Centre, Nairobi
The Footlab model makes AFC Leopards the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 28% for Mathare United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mathare United vs AFC Leopards?
AFC Leopards starts as the favourite with a 137-point Elo edge (1,589 vs 1,452).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mathare United have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; AFC Leopards have 9, 0 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 2, 2026 | Sofapaka(away) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Bidco United(home) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | APS Bomet(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Homeboyz(away) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 9, 2026 | Mara Sugar(home) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Mathare United win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 AFC Leopards win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Mathare United 4-1 AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 2, 2025 | AFC Leopards 2-0 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| May 14, 2025 | AFC Leopards 3-1 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Mathare United 0-4 AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League |
| Mar 12, 2023 | Mathare United 1-0 AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League |
| Jan 18, 2023 | AFC Leopards 2-1 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Mathare United vs AFC Leopards on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mathare United score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; AFC Leopards score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathare United | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| AFC Leopards | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mathare United sit 14th in FKF Premier League (41 points from 34 matches) and AFC Leopards sit 2nd (64 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AFC Leopards | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 28 | 64 |
| 14 | Mathare United | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 35 | 41 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mathare United vs AFC Leopards?
- The Footlab model makes AFC Leopards the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 28% for Mathare United.
- Where and when is Mathare United vs AFC Leopards played?
- Mathare United vs AFC Leopards is played on January 23, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Moi International Sports Centre, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.