Mathare United vs AFC Leopards: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Moi International Sports Centre, Nairobi
The Footlab AI model makes AFC Leopards the favourite at 41%, against 32% for a draw and 27% for Mathare United. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,390 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mathare United vs AFC Leopards?
AFC Leopards starts as the favourite with a 137-point Elo edge (1,596 vs 1,459).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mathare United vs AFC Leopards
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mathare United
Not enough data to predict the Mathare United lineup.
AFC Leopards
Not enough data to predict the AFC Leopards lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 11:37 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mathare United have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; AFC Leopards have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Bidco United(home) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | APS Bomet(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Homeboyz(away) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Mathare United wins, 0 draws, 4 AFC Leopards wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Mathare United 4-1 AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 2, 2025 | AFC Leopards 2-0 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| May 14, 2025 | AFC Leopards 3-1 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Mathare United 0-4 AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League |
| Mar 12, 2023 | Mathare United 1-0 AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League |
| Jan 18, 2023 | AFC Leopards 2-1 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Mathare United vs AFC Leopards on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mathare United score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; AFC Leopards score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathare United | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| AFC Leopards | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mathare United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
A question about Mathare United vs AFC Leopards?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mathare United vs AFC Leopards?
- The Footlab AI model makes AFC Leopards the favourite at 41%, against 32% for a draw and 27% for Mathare United.
- Where and when is Mathare United vs AFC Leopards played?
- Mathare United vs AFC Leopards is played on January 23, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Moi International Sports Centre, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.