Match

Mebrat Hayl vs Adama Kenema: prediction and stats

Premier LeagueRegular Season - 1Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Addis Ababa Stadium, Addis Abeba

Mebrat HaylAdama Kenema

The Footlab AI model makes Mebrat Hayl the favourite at 36%, against 34% for a draw and 30% for Adama Kenema. The most likely score is 0-0. If Mebrat Hayl wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Mebrat Hayl vs Adama Kenema?

A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Mebrat Hayl (1,545) and Adama Kenema (1,497).

36%34%30%
Mebrat Hayl winDrawAdama Kenema win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Mebrat Hayl vs Adama Kenema

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Mebrat Hayl

4-3-3
  1. 7A. Tiruneh
  2. 9H. Hussien
  3. 10G. Eyob
  1. 14A. Tesfaye
  2. 17H. Shewalem
  3. 5H. Gebrehiwot
  1. 13B. B. Babulo
  2. 4B. Woldeyohannes
  3. 21Y. Yemane
  4. 31B. Asresahegn
  1. 45A. Tesfaye

Adama Kenema

4-3-3
  1. 18Abubeker Sani
  2. 15A. Elias
  3. 12D. Hotessa
  1. 16A. Sisay
  2. 25W. Gadissa
  3. 9N. Nuri
  1. 29Mujib Kassim Hamza
  2. 6M. Abdulkarim
  3. 21S. Yohannes
  4. 15M. Awol
  1. 1A. Markos

Computed on October 9, 2026 at 02:32 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mebrat Hayl have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Adama Kenema have 3, 4 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Mebrat Hayl
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Jul 4, 2026Sidama Bunna(away)1-0Premier League
Jun 28, 2026Awassa Kenema(home)1-1Premier League
Jun 22, 2026Welayta Dicha(away)2-1Premier League
Jun 16, 2026Mekelle Kenema(home)0-0Premier League
May 30, 2026Ethiopia Nigd Bank(away)1-2Premier League
Adama Kenema
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Jul 4, 2026Awassa Kenema(away)3-2Premier League
Jun 27, 2026Welayta Dicha(home)0-2Premier League
Jun 21, 2026Mekelle Kenema(away)0-0Premier League
Jun 15, 2026Ethiopia Nigd Bank(home)2-1Premier League
May 30, 2026Sidama Bunna(away)0-1Premier League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Mebrat Hayl wins, 1 draw, 2 Adama Kenema wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 14, 2026Adama Kenema 0-1 Mebrat HaylPremier League
Nov 30, 2025Mebrat Hayl 0-0 Adama KenemaPremier League
Feb 28, 2025Mebrat Hayl 0-2 Adama KenemaPremier League
Feb 3, 2025Adama Kenema 0-3 Mebrat HaylPremier League
Apr 21, 2023Adama Kenema 2-0 Mebrat HaylPremier League
Nov 7, 2022Mebrat Hayl 1-0 Adama KenemaPremier League

Last archived meeting: Adama Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl on Apr 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Mebrat Hayl score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Adama Kenema score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 29% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Mebrat Hayl1.00.958/155/15
Adama Kenema1.01.347/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Mebrat Hayl sit 12th in Premier League (44 points from 34 matches) and Adama Kenema sit 16th (39 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
12Mebrat Hayl34111112272844
16Adama Kenema3410915344539

A question about Mebrat Hayl vs Adama Kenema?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Mebrat Hayl vs Adama Kenema?
The Footlab AI model makes Mebrat Hayl the favourite at 36%, against 34% for a draw and 30% for Adama Kenema.
Where and when is Mebrat Hayl vs Adama Kenema played?
Mebrat Hayl vs Adama Kenema is played on October 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Addis Ababa Stadium, in the Premier League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 29% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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