Melbourne City vs Adelaide United: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 22Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 AM (UTC)AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Adelaide United. The most likely score is 1-1. If Melbourne City wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.9% of the 5,189 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melbourne City vs Adelaide United?
Melbourne City starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,801 vs 1,686).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Melbourne City vs Adelaide United
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Melbourne City
4-2-3-1- 15A. Nabbout
- 24Kavian Rahmani
- 23M. Memeti
- 11A. Mabil
- 14Besian Kutleshi
- 19Q. Macnicol
- 2H. Delbridge
- 13N. Atkinson
- 16A. Behich
- 18J. Cascante
- 40J. Nieuwenhuizen
Adelaide United
4-4-2- 35Brody Burkitt
- 27Mitchell Smith
- 55E. Alagich
- 23L. Đuzel
- 10Juan Muñiz
- 11C. Goodwin
- 4P. Kikianis
- 14J. Barnett
- 52S. Phillis
- 7R. Kitto
- 22J. Smits
Computed on November 9, 2026 at 07:07 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne City have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Adelaide United have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Lions(away) | 0-2 | Australia Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(home) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Nov 5, 2026 | Home United(away) | 0-5 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Home United(home) | 0-2 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Melbourne City win, 1 draw, 4 Adelaide United wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Melbourne City 1-2 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Adelaide United 4-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Melbourne City 0-0 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Feb 7, 2025 | Adelaide United 1-0 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Jan 25, 2024 | Melbourne City 1-0 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Adelaide United 6-0 Melbourne City | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne City vs Adelaide United on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Melbourne City score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Adelaide United score 1.2 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne City | 1.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Adelaide United | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Melbourne City sit 4th in A-League (7 points from 4 matches) and Adelaide United sit 12th (1 point from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Melbourne City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 12 | Adelaide United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
A question about Melbourne City vs Adelaide United?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melbourne City vs Adelaide United?
- The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Adelaide United.
- Where and when is Melbourne City vs Adelaide United played?
- Melbourne City vs Adelaide United is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 AM (UTC) at AAMI Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.