Melbourne City vs Adelaide United: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 22Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 AM (UTC)AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Footlab model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Adelaide United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melbourne City vs Adelaide United?
A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate Melbourne City (1,882) and Adelaide United (1,805).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne City have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Adelaide United have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Lions(away) | 0-2 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Palermo(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Weston Bears(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Adelaide United(home) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Công An Nhân Dân(home) | 0-2 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Jul 30, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 1-2 | Australia Cup |
| May 15, 2026 | Auckland(home) | 0-3 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Melbourne City win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Adelaide United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Melbourne City 1-2 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Adelaide United 4-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Melbourne City 0-0 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Feb 7, 2025 | Adelaide United 1-0 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Jan 25, 2024 | Melbourne City 1-0 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Adelaide United 6-0 Melbourne City | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne City vs Adelaide United on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Melbourne City score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Adelaide United score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne City | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Adelaide United | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1 | 12/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Melbourne City sit 6th in A-League (38 points from 26 matches) and Adelaide United sit 2nd (43 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Adelaide United | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46 | 36 | 43 |
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melbourne City vs Adelaide United?
- The Footlab model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Adelaide United.
- Where and when is Melbourne City vs Adelaide United played?
- Melbourne City vs Adelaide United is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 AM (UTC) at AAMI Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.