Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 22Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 06:00 AM (UTC)Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Brisbane Roar. The most likely score is 1-1. If Melbourne Victory wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,993 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory?
Melbourne Victory starts as the favourite with a 228-point Elo edge (1,895 vs 1,667).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Brisbane Roar
4-1-4-1- 17J. Vidic
- 6N. Maieroni
- 44J. Lauton
- 77M. Stajic
- 2Jacob Nasso
- 10Nam Tae-Hee
- 3D. Valkanis
- 15H. Bility
- 53A. Mitchell
- 2Y. Salas
- 1D. Bouzanis
Melbourne Victory
4-4-1-1- 44C. Nduka
- 8J. Valadon
- 14M. Grimaldi
- 11Clarismario Rodrigues
- 10D. Genreau
- 23K. Jelacic
- 16J. Inserra
- 3J. Davidson
- 18F. Lino
- 4P. Ziereis
- 25J. Duncan
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 08:05 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Brisbane Roar have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Melbourne Victory have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | Olympic(away) | 4-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 2-4 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Sydney Olympic(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Melbourne City(home) | 2-3 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | FC Seoul(home) | 3-0 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Oct 10, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Viettel(away) | 1-1 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 2-0 | Australia Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Brisbane Roar wins, 3 draws, 1 Melbourne Victory win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Melbourne Victory 1-1 Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| Nov 28, 2025 | Brisbane Roar 1-0 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Brisbane Roar 1-1 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Melbourne Victory 2-0 Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Melbourne Victory 0-0 Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Brisbane Roar 3-2 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Brisbane Roar score 1.5 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Melbourne Victory score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Roar | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Melbourne Victory | 1.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Melbourne Victory | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
A question about Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory?
- The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Brisbane Roar.
- Where and when is Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory played?
- Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory is played on March 21, 2027 at 06:00 AM (UTC) at Suncorp Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.