Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 AM (UTC)AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Footlab model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Wellington Phoenix. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix?
Melbourne City starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (1,882 vs 1,771).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne City have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Wellington Phoenix have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Lions(away) | 0-2 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Palermo(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Weston Bears(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Adelaide United(home) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Macarthur(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 0-2 | A-League |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Melbourne City win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Wellington Phoenix win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Melbourne City 2-0 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix 2-2 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Feb 28, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 0-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Jan 3, 2025 | Melbourne City 2-0 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Melbourne City 1-0 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Wellington Phoenix 1-0 Melbourne City | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Melbourne City score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Wellington Phoenix score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne City | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Wellington Phoenix | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Melbourne City sit 6th in A-League (38 points from 26 matches) and Wellington Phoenix sit 8th (33 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 38 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 48 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix?
- The Footlab model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Wellington Phoenix.
- Where and when is Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix played?
- Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix is played on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 AM (UTC) at AAMI Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.