Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on February 13, 2027 at 06:00 AM (UTC)McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
The Footlab model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Brisbane Roar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar?
Newcastle Jets starts as the favourite with a 205-point Elo edge (1,890 vs 1,685).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newcastle Jets have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Brisbane Roar have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | Preston Lions(away) | 2-3 | Australia Cup |
| May 16, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(home) | 4-0 | A-League |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 2-4 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Sydney Olympic(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Melbourne City(home) | 2-3 | A-League |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Newcastle Jets win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Brisbane Roar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Newcastle Jets 4-1 Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Brisbane Roar 3-0 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 1-3 Brisbane Roar | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 21, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 3-1 Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| Jan 7, 2025 | Brisbane Roar 0-1 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Brisbane Roar 0-2 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newcastle Jets score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Brisbane Roar score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Jets | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Brisbane Roar | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newcastle Jets sit 1st in A-League (48 points from 26 matches) and Brisbane Roar sit 11th (26 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55 | 39 | 48 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 27 | 36 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar?
- The Footlab model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Brisbane Roar.
- Where and when is Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar played?
- Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar is played on February 13, 2027 at 06:00 AM (UTC) at McDonald Jones Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.