Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 06:00 AM (UTC)AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Footlab AI model makes Wellington Phoenix the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Melbourne City. The most likely score is 1-1. If Wellington Phoenix wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 5,241 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 10, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Melbourne City (1,801) and Wellington Phoenix (1,763).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Melbourne City
4-2-3-1- 15A. Nabbout
- 24Kavian Rahmani
- 23M. Memeti
- 11A. Mabil
- 14Besian Kutleshi
- 19Q. Macnicol
- 2H. Delbridge
- 13N. Atkinson
- 16A. Behich
- 18J. Cascante
- 40J. Nieuwenhuizen
Wellington Phoenix
4-4-2- 99C. Piper
- 9R. Durán
- 25K. Nagasawa
- 8M. Anderson
- 7B. Duke
- 14A. Rufer
- 28B. Tuiloma
- 18L. Kelly-Heald
- 27M. Sheridan
- 23J. McGarry
- 13H. Gray
Computed on November 10, 2026 at 03:43 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne City have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Wellington Phoenix have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Lions(away) | 0-2 | Australia Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 0-0 | A-League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Newcastle Jets(away) | 3-0 | A-League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(home) | 2-0 | A-League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Macarthur(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Melbourne City wins, 1 draw, 1 Wellington Phoenix win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Melbourne City 2-0 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix 2-2 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Feb 28, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 0-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Jan 3, 2025 | Melbourne City 2-0 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Melbourne City 1-0 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Wellington Phoenix 1-0 Melbourne City | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Melbourne City score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Wellington Phoenix score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne City | 1.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Wellington Phoenix | 1.3 | 1.4 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Melbourne City sit 4th in A-League (7 points from 4 matches) and Wellington Phoenix sit 1st (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Melbourne City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
A question about Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix?
- The Footlab AI model makes Wellington Phoenix the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Melbourne City.
- Where and when is Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix played?
- Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix is played on January 10, 2027 at 06:00 AM (UTC) at AAMI Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.