Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 06:00 AM (UTC)AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Brisbane Roar. The most likely score is 1-1. If Melbourne City wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,838 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 29, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar?
Melbourne City starts as the favourite with a 170-point Elo edge (1,847 vs 1,677).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Melbourne City
4-2-3-1- 15A. Nabbout
- 14Besian Kutleshi
- 24Kavian Rahmani
- 23M. Memeti
- 11A. Mabil
- 19Q. Macnicol
- 13N. Atkinson
- 2H. Delbridge
- 4L. Bonetig
- 16A. Behich
- 1M. Freke
Brisbane Roar
3-5-2- 17J. Vidic
- 9V. Postolachi
- 6N. Maieroni
- 19S. Ngor
- 10Nam Tae-Hee
- 13T. Russell
- 8T. Francois
- 77M. Stajic
- 16J. King
- 5T. Aldred
- 40George Plusnin
Computed on October 29, 2026 at 08:12 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne City have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Brisbane Roar have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Lions(away) | 0-2 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Palermo(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Weston Bears(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Perth Glory(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Olympic(away) | 4-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 2-4 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Sydney Olympic(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Melbourne City wins, 1 draw, 0 Brisbane Roar wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Brisbane Roar 2-3 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Melbourne City 1-0 Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Brisbane Roar 0-0 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Melbourne City 3-2 Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Melbourne City 1-0 Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| Dec 6, 2024 | Brisbane Roar 1-4 Melbourne City | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Melbourne City score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Brisbane Roar score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne City | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Brisbane Roar | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Melbourne City sit 10th in A-League (1 point from 2 matches) and Brisbane Roar sit 5th (3 points from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Brisbane Roar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Melbourne City | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
A question about Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar?
- The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Brisbane Roar.
- Where and when is Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar played?
- Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar is played on January 16, 2027 at 06:00 AM (UTC) at AAMI Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.