Mensajero vs Estrella: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 32Kick-off on April 25, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, Santa Cruz de la Palma (La Palma)
The Footlab AI model makes Mensajero the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Estrella. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,564 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mensajero vs Estrella?
Mensajero starts as the favourite with a 199-point Elo edge (1,819 vs 1,620).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mensajero vs Estrella
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mensajero
Not enough data to predict the Mensajero lineup.
Estrella
Not enough data to predict the Estrella lineup.
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 09:37 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mensajero have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Estrella have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Los Llanos(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | UD San Fernando(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Panadería Pulido(away) | 0-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Las Palmas III(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | San Bartolomé(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Laguna de Duero(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Real Unión de Tenerife(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | San Miguel(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Marino(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Los Llanos(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 4 Mensajero wins, 0 draws, 0 Estrella wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | Mensajero 3-2 Estrella | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Estrella 1-3 Mensajero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 16, 2023 | Mensajero 2-1 Estrella | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Dec 17, 2022 | Estrella 0-1 Mensajero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
How many goals should we expect?
Mensajero score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Estrella score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mensajero | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Estrella | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mensajero sit 10th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (12 points from 9 matches) and Estrella sit 13th (10 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mensajero | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 12 |
| 13 | Estrella | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 10 |
A question about Mensajero vs Estrella?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mensajero vs Estrella?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mensajero the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Estrella.
- Where and when is Mensajero vs Estrella played?
- Mensajero vs Estrella is played on April 25, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 25, 2027San Fernando CDvsPanadería Pulido
- Apr 25, 2027Las Palmas IIIvsLos Llanos
- Apr 25, 2027Villa Santa BrígidavsLanzarote
- Apr 25, 2027San BartolomévsMarino
- Apr 25, 2027Tenerife CvsUnión Sur Yaiza
- Apr 25, 2027San MiguelvsLaguna de Duero
- Apr 25, 2027AnazavsPlayas Sotavento
- Apr 25, 2027Villaverde NortevsReal Unión de Tenerife