Lanzarote vs Mensajero: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 33Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo de fútbol Francisco Bermúdez Hernández, Tías
The Footlab AI model makes Lanzarote the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Mensajero. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lanzarote wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 3,102 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lanzarote vs Mensajero?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Lanzarote (1,780) and Mensajero (1,853).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lanzarote vs Mensajero
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lanzarote
Not enough data to predict the Lanzarote lineup.
Mensajero
Not enough data to predict the Mensajero lineup.
Computed on October 23, 2026 at 10:35 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lanzarote have 3 wins, 9 draws and 3 defeats; Mensajero have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Anaza(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Los Llanos(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | UD San Fernando(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Las Palmas III(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | San Bartolomé(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Panadería Pulido(away) | 0-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Las Palmas III(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | San Bartolomé(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Villaverde Norte(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | San Miguel(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lanzarote wins, 1 draw, 3 Mensajero wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Mensajero 3-0 Lanzarote | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Lanzarote 4-1 Mensajero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 4, 2025 | Mensajero 2-1 Lanzarote | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Lanzarote 2-0 Mensajero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Feb 12, 2023 | Lanzarote 1-1 Mensajero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Dec 6, 2022 | Mensajero 2-1 Lanzarote | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
Last archived meeting: Mensajero vs Lanzarote on Feb 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lanzarote score 0.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Mensajero score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lanzarote | 0.9 | 1.0 | 3 | 9/15 | 3/15 |
| Mensajero | 1.0 | 1.1 | 7 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lanzarote sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (7 points from 7 matches) and Mensajero sit 8th (11 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mensajero | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 11 |
| 12 | Lanzarote | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 |
A question about Lanzarote vs Mensajero?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lanzarote vs Mensajero?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lanzarote the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Mensajero.
- Where and when is Lanzarote vs Mensajero played?
- Lanzarote vs Mensajero is played on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de fútbol Francisco Bermúdez Hernández, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- May 2, 2027MarinovsLas Palmas III
- May 2, 2027Villa Santa BrígidavsPanadería Pulido
- May 2, 2027Unión Sur YaizavsAnaza
- May 2, 2027EstrellavsTenerife C
- May 2, 2027Real Unión de TenerifevsSan Bartolomé
- May 2, 2027Laguna de DuerovsVillaverde Norte
- May 2, 2027Los LlanosvsSan Fernando CD
- May 2, 2027Playas SotaventovsSan Miguel