Where and when is Lanzarote vs Mensajero played?

Lanzarote vs Mensajero is played on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de fútbol Francisco Bermúdez Hernández, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Lanzarote vs Mensajero: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 33Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo de fútbol Francisco Bermúdez Hernández, Tías

Lanzarote

Mensajero

The Footlab model makes Lanzarote the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Mensajero. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Lanzarote vs Mensajero?

A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Lanzarote (1,786) and Mensajero (1,859).

Lanzarote win46 %

Draw30 %

Mensajero win24 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lanzarote have 2 wins, 9 draws and 4 defeats; Mensajero have 9, 2 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Lanzarote
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Real Unión de Tenerife(home)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 3, 2026	San Bartolomé(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 25, 2026	Tamaraceite(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 19, 2026	UD San Fernando(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 11, 2026	Herbania(away)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Mensajero
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 24, 2026	Tamaraceite(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 16, 2026	Tamaraceite(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 10, 2026	UD San Fernando(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 3, 2026	Arucas(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 26, 2026	Villa Santa Brígida(home)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lanzarote win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Mensajero win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 1, 2026	Mensajero 3-0 Lanzarote	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Sep 21, 2025	Lanzarote 4-1 Mensajero	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 4, 2025	Mensajero 2-1 Lanzarote	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Dec 22, 2024	Lanzarote 2-0 Mensajero	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Feb 12, 2023	Lanzarote 1-1 Mensajero	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Dec 6, 2022	Mensajero 2-1 Lanzarote	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Last archived meeting: Mensajero vs Lanzarote on Feb 1, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Lanzarote score 0.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Mensajero score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Lanzarote	0.8	1.0	4	8/15	3/15
Mensajero	1.3	0.9	7	6/15	5/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Lanzarote sit 9th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (48 points from 34 matches) and Mensajero sit 4th (63 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Mensajero	34	18	9	7	51	31	63
9	Lanzarote	34	12	12	10	45	36	48

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Lanzarote vs Mensajero?: The Footlab model makes Lanzarote the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Mensajero.
Where and when is Lanzarote vs Mensajero played?: Lanzarote vs Mensajero is played on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de fútbol Francisco Bermúdez Hernández, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.