Mensajero vs Las Palmas III: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 24Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, Santa Cruz de la Palma (La Palma)
The Footlab model makes Mensajero the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Las Palmas III. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mensajero vs Las Palmas III?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Mensajero (1,859) and Las Palmas III (1,819).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mensajero have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Las Palmas III have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Tamaraceite(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 16, 2026 | Tamaraceite(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 10, 2026 | UD San Fernando(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 3, 2026 | Arucas(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Villa Santa Brígida(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | San Miguel(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 3, 2026 | Atlético Paso(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Tenisca(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Panadería Pulido(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Real Unión de Tenerife(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Mensajero win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Las Palmas III win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Mensajero 3-1 Las Palmas III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Las Palmas III 1-1 Mensajero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 22, 2021 | Mensajero 2-1 Las Palmas III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 1, 2021 | Las Palmas III 1-3 Mensajero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Mar 8, 2020 | Mensajero 2-1 Las Palmas III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 19, 2019 | Las Palmas III 2-4 Mensajero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
Last archived meeting: Mensajero vs Las Palmas III on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mensajero score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Las Palmas III score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mensajero | 1.3 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Las Palmas III | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mensajero sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (63 points from 34 matches) and Las Palmas III sit 6th (54 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mensajero | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 51 | 31 | 63 |
| 6 | Las Palmas III | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 58 | 42 | 54 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mensajero vs Las Palmas III?
- The Footlab model makes Mensajero the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Las Palmas III.
- Where and when is Mensajero vs Las Palmas III played?
- Mensajero vs Las Palmas III is played on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 28, 2027LanzarotevsLos Llanos
- Feb 28, 2027Villa Santa BrígidavsSan Fernando CD
- Feb 28, 2027Unión Sur YaizavsReal Unión de Tenerife
- Feb 28, 2027EstrellavsMarino
- Feb 28, 2027Playas SotaventovsLaguna de Duero
- Feb 28, 2027Tenerife CvsSan Bartolomé
- Feb 28, 2027San MiguelvsPanadería Pulido
- Feb 28, 2027AnazavsVillaverde Norte