Where and when is Mensajero vs Panadería Pulido played?

Mensajero vs Panadería Pulido is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Mensajero vs Panadería Pulido: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, Santa Cruz de la Palma (La Palma)

Mensajero

Panadería Pulido

The Footlab model makes Mensajero the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Panadería Pulido. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Mensajero vs Panadería Pulido?

A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Mensajero (1,859) and Panadería Pulido (1,813).

Mensajero win50 %

Draw28 %

Panadería Pulido win23 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mensajero have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Panadería Pulido have 5, 5 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Mensajero
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 24, 2026	Tamaraceite(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 16, 2026	Tamaraceite(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 10, 2026	UD San Fernando(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 3, 2026	Arucas(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 26, 2026	Villa Santa Brígida(home)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Panadería Pulido
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 24, 2026	UD San Fernando(away)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 16, 2026	UD San Fernando(home)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 10, 2026	Unión Sur Yaiza(home)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 3, 2026	San Miguel(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 25, 2026	Atlético Paso(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Mensajero win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Panadería Pulido win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 21, 2026	Panadería Pulido 3-2 Mensajero	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Oct 12, 2025	Mensajero 2-0 Panadería Pulido	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Mar 9, 2025	Mensajero 2-3 Panadería Pulido	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Oct 26, 2024	Panadería Pulido 2-0 Mensajero	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 2, 2023	Mensajero 3-0 Panadería Pulido	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Dec 3, 2022	Panadería Pulido 2-1 Mensajero	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Last archived meeting: Panadería Pulido vs Mensajero on Feb 21, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Mensajero score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Panadería Pulido score 1.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Mensajero	1.3	0.9	7	6/15	5/15
Panadería Pulido	1.0	1.2	3	8/15	5/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Mensajero sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (63 points from 34 matches) and Panadería Pulido sit 5th (55 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Mensajero	34	18	9	7	51	31	63
5	Panadería Pulido	34	15	10	9	47	33	55

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Mensajero vs Panadería Pulido?: The Footlab model makes Mensajero the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Panadería Pulido.
Where and when is Mensajero vs Panadería Pulido played?: Mensajero vs Panadería Pulido is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.