Where and when is Estrella vs San Miguel played?

Estrella vs San Miguel is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Las Palmitas, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Estrella vs San Miguel: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Las Palmitas, Gran Canaria

Estrella

San Miguel

The Footlab model makes Estrella the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for San Miguel. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Estrella vs San Miguel?

San Miguel starts as the favourite with a 141-point Elo edge (1,740 vs 1,598).

Estrella win41 %

Draw29 %

San Miguel win30 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estrella have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; San Miguel have 6, 3 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Estrella
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 11, 2025	Herbania(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 4, 2025	San Bartolomé(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 26, 2025	Santa Úrsula(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 17, 2025	Buzanada(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 12, 2025	Marino(home)	2-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

San Miguel
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Las Palmas III(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 3, 2026	Panadería Pulido(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 26, 2026	Telde(away)	3-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 18, 2026	Marino(home)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 12, 2026	Mensajero(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

How many goals should we expect?

Estrella score 0.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; San Miguel score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Estrella	0.9	1.0	5	7/15	4/15
San Miguel	1.2	1.1	4	6/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
11	San Miguel	34	10	9	15	37	43	39

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Estrella vs San Miguel?: The Footlab model makes Estrella the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for San Miguel.
Where and when is Estrella vs San Miguel played?: Estrella vs San Miguel is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Las Palmitas, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.