Where and when is Mensajero vs San Bartolomé played?

Mensajero vs San Bartolomé is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Mensajero vs San Bartolomé: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, Santa Cruz de la Palma (La Palma)

Mensajero

San Bartolomé

The Footlab model makes Mensajero the favourite at 70%, against 20% for a draw and 10% for San Bartolomé. The most likely score is 2-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Mensajero vs San Bartolomé?

Mensajero starts as the favourite with a 148-point Elo edge (1,855 vs 1,707).

Mensajero win70 %

Draw20 %

San Bartolomé win10 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mensajero have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; San Bartolomé have 4, 7 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Mensajero
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 24, 2026	Tamaraceite(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 16, 2026	Tamaraceite(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 10, 2026	UD San Fernando(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 3, 2026	Arucas(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 26, 2026	Villa Santa Brígida(home)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

San Bartolomé
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Tenerife C(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 3, 2026	Lanzarote(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 25, 2026	UD San Fernando(home)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 18, 2026	Arucas(away)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 11, 2026	Villa Santa Brígida(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Mensajero win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 San Bartolomé win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jan 17, 2026	San Bartolomé 0-0 Mensajero	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Sep 7, 2025	Mensajero 2-0 San Bartolomé	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Feb 9, 2025	Mensajero 0-1 San Bartolomé	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Sep 29, 2024	San Bartolomé 2-2 Mensajero	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Last archived meeting: San Bartolomé vs Mensajero on Jan 17, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Mensajero score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; San Bartolomé score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Mensajero	1.3	0.9	7	6/15	5/15
San Bartolomé	1.1	1.3	5	7/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Mensajero sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (63 points from 34 matches) and San Bartolomé sit 14th (36 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Mensajero	34	18	9	7	51	31	63
14	San Bartolomé	34	8	12	14	30	55	36

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Mensajero vs San Bartolomé?: The Footlab model makes Mensajero the favourite at 70%, against 20% for a draw and 10% for San Bartolomé.
Where and when is Mensajero vs San Bartolomé played?: Mensajero vs San Bartolomé is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.