Where and when is Unión Sur Yaiza vs Marino played?

Unión Sur Yaiza vs Marino is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Yaiza, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Unión Sur Yaiza vs Marino: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Yaiza, Yaiza (Lanzarote)

Unión Sur Yaiza

Marino

The Footlab model makes Unión Sur Yaiza the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Marino. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Unión Sur Yaiza vs Marino?

A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Unión Sur Yaiza (1,712) and Marino (1,705).

Unión Sur Yaiza win41 %

Draw29 %

Marino win31 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Unión Sur Yaiza have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Marino have 0, 10 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Unión Sur Yaiza
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Panadería Pulido(away)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 3, 2026	Telde(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 26, 2026	Marino(away)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 22, 2026	Arucas(home)	3-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 19, 2026	Mensajero(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Marino
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Jul 26, 2026	Tenerife(home)	0-6	Friendlies Clubs
May 10, 2026	Arucas(home)	1-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 1, 2026	Villa Santa Brígida(away)	0-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 26, 2026	Unión Sur Yaiza(home)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 18, 2026	San Miguel(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Unión Sur Yaiza win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Marino win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 26, 2026	Marino 0-0 Unión Sur Yaiza	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Dec 20, 2025	Unión Sur Yaiza 1-1 Marino	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Mar 3, 2024	Marino 1-1 Unión Sur Yaiza	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Oct 14, 2023	Unión Sur Yaiza 2-1 Marino	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 16, 2023	Marino 1-0 Unión Sur Yaiza	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Dec 17, 2022	Unión Sur Yaiza 3-2 Marino	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Last archived meeting: Marino vs Unión Sur Yaiza on Apr 26, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Unión Sur Yaiza score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Marino score 0.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Unión Sur Yaiza	1.1	1.1	7	4/15	8/15
Marino	0.7	1.5	3	8/15	5/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Unión Sur Yaiza sit 13th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (38 points from 34 matches) and Marino sit 12th (39 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
12	Marino	34	8	15	11	44	40	39
13	Unión Sur Yaiza	34	10	8	16	33	43	38

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Unión Sur Yaiza vs Marino?: The Footlab model makes Unión Sur Yaiza the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Marino.
Where and when is Unión Sur Yaiza vs Marino played?: Unión Sur Yaiza vs Marino is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Yaiza, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.