Merani Tbilisi vs Gardabani: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 19Kick-off on August 27, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Sport-kompleksi Shatili, Tbilisi
The Footlab model makes Merani Tbilisi the favourite at 71%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Gardabani. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merani Tbilisi vs Gardabani?
Merani Tbilisi starts as the favourite with a 147-point Elo edge (1,267 vs 1,120).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merani Tbilisi have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Gardabani have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Betlemi(away) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Guria(home) | 0-5 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Didube 2014(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Guria(away) | 1-6 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Irao(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Didube 2014(home) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Irao(away) | 0-3 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | WIT Georgia(home) | 0-5 | Liga 3 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Iberia 2010(home) | 1-5 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Varketili(home) | 1-3 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Merani Tbilisi win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Gardabani win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | Gardabani 0-3 Merani Tbilisi | Liga 3 |
| Aug 27, 2025 | Gardabani 2-0 Merani Tbilisi | Liga 3 |
| Mar 27, 2025 | Merani Tbilisi 4-2 Gardabani | Liga 3 |
| Aug 29, 2024 | Gardabani 1-2 Merani Tbilisi | Liga 3 |
| Mar 7, 2024 | Merani Tbilisi 1-1 Gardabani | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: Gardabani vs Merani Tbilisi on Apr 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Merani Tbilisi score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Gardabani score 0.9 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merani Tbilisi | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Gardabani | 0.9 | 2.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merani Tbilisi sit 7th in Liga 3 (29 points from 18 matches) and Gardabani sit 13th (13 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Merani Tbilisi | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 29 |
| 13 | Gardabani | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 40 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merani Tbilisi vs Gardabani?
- The Footlab model makes Merani Tbilisi the favourite at 71%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Gardabani.
- Where and when is Merani Tbilisi vs Gardabani played?
- Merani Tbilisi vs Gardabani is played on August 27, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Sport-kompleksi Shatili, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.