Mercadal vs Constància: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Group 11 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio San Martì, Menorca
The Footlab model makes Constància the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Mercadal. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mercadal vs Constància?
Constància starts as the favourite with a 164-point Elo edge (1,909 vs 1,746).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mercadal have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Constància have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Alcúdia(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 3, 2026 | Mallorca II(away) | 0-7 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Llosetense(away) | 1-6 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Platges Calvià(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Formentera(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 17, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 10, 2026 | Inter Ibiza(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 3, 2026 | Rotlet Molinar(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Llosetense(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Mercadal win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Constància win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2026 | Mercadal 1-4 Constància | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Constància 0-2 Mercadal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Mercadal 0-1 Constància | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Nov 20, 2024 | Constància 2-1 Mercadal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Constància 1-0 Mercadal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Mercadal 1-1 Constància | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
Last archived meeting: Mercadal vs Constància on Apr 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mercadal score 0.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Constància score 2.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercadal | 0.7 | 1.9 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Constància | 2.3 | 0.8 | 7 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mercadal sit 8th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 (49 points from 34 matches) and Constància sit 4th (62 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Constància | 34 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 62 | 29 | 62 |
| 8 | Mercadal | 34 | 15 | 5 | 15 | 31 | 44 | 49 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mercadal vs Constància?
- The Footlab model makes Constància the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Mercadal.
- Where and when is Mercadal vs Constància played?
- Mercadal vs Constància is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio San Martì, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 11.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.