Merelbeke vs Mandel United: prediction and stats
First Amateur DivisionVV - 7Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark Molenkouter, Merelbeke
The Footlab model makes Mandel United the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Merelbeke. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merelbeke vs Mandel United?
Mandel United starts as the favourite with a 189-point Elo edge (1,967 vs 1,778).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merelbeke have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Mandel United have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | K. Lierse S.K.(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Gent(home) | 1-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ninove(away) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Roeselare Daisel(home) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Houtvenne(home) | 2-1 | First Amateur Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | VW Hamme(home) | 1-1 | Second Amateur Division - VFV A |
| Apr 19, 2026 | HO Kalken(away) | 2-0 | Second Amateur Division - VFV A |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Mechelen II(away) | 2-1 | Second Amateur Division - VFV A |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Zulte Waregem II(home) | 2-2 | Second Amateur Division - VFV A |
| Mar 14, 2026 | FC Lebbeke(away) | 0-0 | Second Amateur Division - VFV A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Merelbeke win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Mandel United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2024 | Merelbeke 1-1 Mandel United | Second Amateur Division - VFV A |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Mandel United 1-0 Merelbeke | Second Amateur Division - VFV A |
| Sep 30, 2020 | Mandel United 1-1 Merelbeke | Second Amateur Division - VFV A |
| Dec 22, 2019 | Merelbeke 3-1 Mandel United | Second Amateur Division - VFV A |
| Sep 7, 2019 | Mandel United 2-2 Merelbeke | Second Amateur Division - VFV A |
Last archived meeting: Merelbeke vs Mandel United on Jan 7, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Merelbeke score 1.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Mandel United score 1.7 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merelbeke | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Mandel United | 1.7 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Merelbeke | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merelbeke vs Mandel United?
- The Footlab model makes Mandel United the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Merelbeke.
- Where and when is Merelbeke vs Mandel United played?
- Merelbeke vs Mandel United is played on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Molenkouter, in the First Amateur Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.