Merelbeke vs Tienen: prediction and stats
First Amateur DivisionVV - 25Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark Molenkouter, Merelbeke
The Footlab model makes Merelbeke the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Tienen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merelbeke vs Tienen?
A very open match: only 0 Elo points separate Merelbeke (1,777) and Tienen (1,777).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merelbeke have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Tienen have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | K. Lierse S.K.(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Gent(home) | 1-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ninove(away) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Roeselare Daisel(home) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Houtvenne(home) | 2-1 | First Amateur Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Hoogstraten(home) | 1-1 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Knokke(away) | 0-2 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Dessel Sport(home) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Spouwen-Mopertingen(away) | 2-0 | First Amateur Division |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Diegem Sport(home) | 5-1 | First Amateur Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Merelbeke win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Tienen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Tienen 2-0 Merelbeke | First Amateur Division |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Merelbeke 2-1 Tienen | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Merelbeke 0-0 Tienen | First Amateur Division |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Tienen 2-0 Merelbeke | First Amateur Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Merelbeke score 1.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Tienen score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merelbeke | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Tienen | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merelbeke sit 14th in First Amateur Division (11 points from 12 matches) and Tienen sit 15th (11 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Merelbeke | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 11 |
| 15 | Tienen | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merelbeke vs Tienen?
- The Footlab model makes Merelbeke the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Tienen.
- Where and when is Merelbeke vs Tienen played?
- Merelbeke vs Tienen is played on March 14, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Molenkouter, in the First Amateur Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.