Tienen vs Merelbeke: prediction and stats
First Amateur DivisionVV - 6Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Bergéstadion, Tirlemont
The Footlab model makes Tienen the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Merelbeke. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tienen vs Merelbeke?
A very open match: only 0 Elo points separate Tienen (1,778) and Merelbeke (1,778).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tienen have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Merelbeke have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Hoogstraten(home) | 1-1 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Knokke(away) | 0-2 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Dessel Sport(home) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Spouwen-Mopertingen(away) | 2-0 | First Amateur Division |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Diegem Sport(home) | 5-1 | First Amateur Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | K. Lierse S.K.(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Gent(home) | 1-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ninove(away) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Roeselare Daisel(home) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Houtvenne(home) | 2-1 | First Amateur Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Tienen win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Merelbeke win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Tienen 2-0 Merelbeke | First Amateur Division |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Merelbeke 2-1 Tienen | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Merelbeke 0-0 Tienen | First Amateur Division |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Tienen 2-0 Merelbeke | First Amateur Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Tienen score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Merelbeke score 1.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tienen | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Merelbeke | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tienen sit 15th in First Amateur Division (11 points from 12 matches) and Merelbeke sit 14th (11 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Merelbeke | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 11 |
| 15 | Tienen | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tienen vs Merelbeke?
- The Footlab model makes Tienen the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Merelbeke.
- Where and when is Tienen vs Merelbeke played?
- Tienen vs Merelbeke is played on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Bergéstadion, in the First Amateur Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.