Merthyr Town vs Darlington 1883: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 44Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Penydarren Park, Merthyr Tydfil
The Footlab model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 46%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Darlington 1883. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Darlington 1883?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Merthyr Town (1,851) and Darlington 1883 (1,814).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merthyr Town have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Darlington 1883 have 3, 1 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | South Shields(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | AFC Telford United(home) | 2-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hednesford Town(home) | 2-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Worcester City(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Harborough Town(away) | 2-4 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Chester(home) | 0-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bedford Town(away) | 3-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Worksop Town(home) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Rotherham(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Merthyr Town win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Darlington 1883 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Darlington 1883 3-1 Merthyr Town | National League - North |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Merthyr Town 3-1 Darlington 1883 | National League - North |
Last archived meeting: Darlington 1883 vs Merthyr Town on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Merthyr Town score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Darlington 1883 score 1.1 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merthyr Town | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Darlington 1883 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merthyr Town sit 12th in National League - North (5 points from 4 matches) and Darlington 1883 sit 19th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Merthyr Town | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| 19 | Darlington 1883 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merthyr Town vs Darlington 1883?
- The Footlab model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 46%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Darlington 1883.
- Where and when is Merthyr Town vs Darlington 1883 played?
- Merthyr Town vs Darlington 1883 is played on April 10, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Penydarren Park, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.