Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 25Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Penydarren Park, Merthyr Tydfil
The Footlab model makes Harborough Town the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Merthyr Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town?
Harborough Town starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,977 vs 1,873).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merthyr Town have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Harborough Town have 8, 7 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | South Shields(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | AFC Telford United(home) | 2-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hednesford Town(home) | 2-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Worcester City(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Darlington 1883(home) | 4-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Oxford City(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Morecambe(home) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Stamford(away) | 0-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
How many goals should we expect?
Merthyr Town score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Harborough Town score 2.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merthyr Town | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Harborough Town | 2.0 | 0.9 | 4 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merthyr Town sit 12th in National League - North (5 points from 4 matches) and Harborough Town sit 7th (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Harborough Town | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 8 |
| 12 | Merthyr Town | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town?
- The Footlab model makes Harborough Town the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Merthyr Town.
- Where and when is Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town played?
- Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town is played on January 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Penydarren Park, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.