Metal Kharkiv vs Chernihiv: prediction and stats
Persha LigaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Avanhard, Uzhhorod
The Footlab model makes Metal Kharkiv the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Chernihiv. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Metal Kharkiv vs Chernihiv?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Metal Kharkiv (1,630) and Chernihiv (1,599).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Metal Kharkiv have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Chernihiv have 2, 7 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Penuel(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oleksandria(home) | 0-2 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Polissya II(away) | 1-0 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Probiy Horodenka(home) | 3-1 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Kulykiv(away) | 1-2 | Persha Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Polissya II(home) | 2-2 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Probiy Horodenka(away) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kulykiv(home) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lokomotiv Kyiv(away) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Obolon'-Brovar(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Metal Kharkiv win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Chernihiv win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | Chernihiv 1-2 Metal Kharkiv | Persha Liga |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Metal Kharkiv 2-1 Chernihiv | Persha Liga |
| May 25, 2024 | Metal Kharkiv 1-1 Chernihiv | Persha Liga |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Chernihiv 2-1 Metal Kharkiv | Persha Liga |
Last archived meeting: Chernihiv vs Metal Kharkiv on May 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Metal Kharkiv score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Chernihiv score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metal Kharkiv | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Chernihiv | 1.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Metal Kharkiv sit 7th in Persha Liga (6 points from 4 matches) and Chernihiv sit 10th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Metal Kharkiv | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Chernihiv | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Metal Kharkiv vs Chernihiv?
- The Footlab model makes Metal Kharkiv the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Chernihiv.
- Where and when is Metal Kharkiv vs Chernihiv played?
- Metal Kharkiv vs Chernihiv is played on September 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Avanhard, in the Persha Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.