Metalac GM vs Grafičar: prediction and stats
Prva LigaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion FK Metalac, Gornji Milanovac
The Footlab model makes Metalac GM the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Grafičar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Metalac GM vs Grafičar?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Metalac GM (1,604) and Grafičar (1,568).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Metalac GM have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Grafičar have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FK Vozdovac(away) | 0-1 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Semendrija 1924(home) | 0-0 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Napredak(away) | 1-2 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV(home) | 2-4 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Jedinstvo Ub(away) | 1-0 | Prva Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Loznica(home) | 2-2 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FK Vozdovac(away) | 1-0 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Semendrija 1924(home) | 1-2 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Napredak(away) | 0-1 | Prva Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Borac Cacak(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Metalac GM win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Grafičar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2023 | Grafičar 1-1 Metalac GM | Prva Liga |
| Aug 5, 2023 | Metalac GM 1-3 Grafičar | Prva Liga |
| Apr 12, 2023 | Grafičar 2-0 Metalac GM | Prva Liga |
| Oct 15, 2022 | Metalac GM 1-3 Grafičar | Prva Liga |
| Jun 13, 2020 | Grafičar 2-1 Metalac GM | Prva Liga |
| Oct 13, 2019 | Metalac GM 0-0 Grafičar | Prva Liga |
Last archived meeting: Grafičar vs Metalac GM on Nov 12, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Metalac GM score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Grafičar score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metalac GM | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Grafičar | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Metalac GM sit 12th in Prva Liga (4 points from 5 matches) and Grafičar sit 10th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grafičar | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 12 | Metalac GM | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Metalac GM vs Grafičar?
- The Footlab model makes Metalac GM the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Grafičar.
- Where and when is Metalac GM vs Grafičar played?
- Metalac GM vs Grafičar is played on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion FK Metalac, in the Prva Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.